The collapse of the Iranian axis in the region is shifting the regional balance of power and creating a new Middle East with more opportunities than threats.
Three regional axes have competed for regional hegemony so far:
The Iranian-Shiite axis, which Hamas and Islamic Jihad have also joined.;
The Sunni Islamist coalition led by Turkey and Qatar, aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood ideology. Hamas also feels comfortable with this axis;
The pro-Western Sunni axis led by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt. Israel has effectively become an active member of this bloc following the Abraham Accords.
The recent events are dramatic, as Iran has effectively dropped out of the Middle East's "Game of Thrones." Its nuclear project is more exposed than ever, while Hezbollah will need to focus on maintaining its internal standing. Assad's downfall prevents Iran from participating in the major reconstruction project in Lebanon and Syria, which theoretically had the potential to restore its hegemonic status. The threat from the Iranian axis is becoming tactical, something we never thought possible.
From the vacuum created by Iran's regional decline, the pro-Western axis and the Islamist axis will compete, primarily in four central arenas: Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Jordan.
Syria
The Sunni Islamist axis is in a better starting position to gain influence in Syria due to its ideological affinity and Turkish support for the rebels. Turkey's ambitions for regional hegemony make friction with Israel inevitable. However, Turkey is not Iran, and Israel's situation will be far better than when Tehran had a foothold in Syria. Syria might also disintegrate as a political entity, potentially granting partial autonomy to the Kurds and Druze, which would make Syria's role in the "Game of Thrones" much more complex.
Lebanon
This week, Hezbollah's Secretary-General delivered what amounts to a speech of surrender. Naim Qassem effectively admitted that Hezbollah's ability to recover is nearly nonexistent, and Hezbollah will focus on a rearguard battle to maintain its position in Lebanon. Iran will still influence Lebanon, but its impact will shrink.
The first test in this context will occur in January, when Lebanon is scheduled to elect a president. According to the constitution, the president must be a Maronite Christian but can only be elected with broad consensus among the sects. Lebanon has been without a president in recent years due to Hezbollah's veto.
Hezbollah’s announcement that Amal leader Nabih Berri will negotiate on behalf of the Shiite sect over the identity of the president is clear evidence of Hezbollah’s declining stature, even among Shiites. This development creates a plausible opportunity for the election of a president aligned with the pro-Western axis.
Gaza
Gaza's influence on the regional balance of power depends on Hamas's control over the Strip. Following the defeats of the Shiite axis in the region, Hamas may draw closer to the Sunni Islamist axis. The most significant meeting point between the Islamist axis and the Iranian axis was their support for Hamas.
However, if Hamas is eradicated as a governing force, Israel could become a veto player regarding which axis influences Gaza. Naturally, Israel would prefer Saudi Arabia and the UAE over Turkey.
Jordan
Jordan's regime faces challenges from both Islamist movements and Iranian subversion. Despite its harsh anti-Israel rhetoric, Jordan remains an asset for Israel and a crucial part of the pro-Western Sunni axis. For Israel, any change to the status quo in Jordan is almost certainly bad news.
A new Middle East
The new reality in the Middle East presents Israel with many challenges but far more opportunities. In Syria, the Sunni Islamist axis is in a strong starting position to fill the vacuum left by Iran, while in Lebanon, it is the pro-Western axis that has the upper hand. Gaza remains a major unknown, depending on Hamas's ability to maintain sovereignty and control. Jordan is often overlooked but is the most critical country for Israel in the process of creating a new balance of power.
This is a new Middle East - though not the one Shimon Peres envisioned.
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