Under Pressure
The pressure on Israel is intensifying, and the possibility of severe political isolation, a widespread arms embargo, and even sanctions are no longer merely hypothetical scenarios. In recent days, Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs announced an arms embargo on Israel. Several officials within the American administration have voiced opposition to aid provide support for Israel, and Britain has made a demand for allowing visits to Hamas terrorists who participated in the October 7th massacre, as a condition for continuing weapon supplies to Israel. The British Foreign Secretary, David Cameron, has even warned that a Europe-wide arms embargo on Israel could be declared. Moreover, even Italy, under Maloney's right-wing government, has announced its opposition to actions in Rafah.
This international approach is highly concerning and strategically unwise. Britain's decision to prioritize pressure on prison visits for murderers and kidnappers over the release of hostages is astonishing and deeply troubling. Such conduct only hinders the possibility of achieving a ceasefire and a hostage deal, as it provides Hamas with a negative incentive to reach an agreement while Israel faces denunciation on the international stage. Nevertheless, it is what it is, and the pressing question is how Israel should respond under these circumstances.
Insights and Conclusions:
The trend towards international isolation constitutes a significant threat to Israel's national security and could prevent the formation of regional and international coalitions against threats like Iran.
In the context of the conflict in Gaza, entities that ideologically sympathize with Hamas are utilizing political, diplomatic, legal, and civil arenas to undermine the State of Israel. Consequently, Hamas has emerged as a political entity wielding a global soft power.
The October 7 event was a calculated maneuver by Hamas, utilizing Gazans as human shields. The ensuing humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip benefits Hamas and aligns with its objectives, a reality that is often not understood internationally.
Any Israeli government, regardless of its coalition makeup or the identity of its Prime Minister, could not have managed the war in Gaza in a significantly different manner. Any Israeli government would face international and diplomatic pressures.
However, the current government's actions and inactions have notably contributed to Israel's international isolation. The apprehension of an arms embargo might have been mitigated had Israel articulated a coherent post-conflict agenda. The international community's skepticism grows as the conflict drags on for months without a clear end goal, coupled with the rising civilian casualties.
Israel is currently sidelined in the international and diplomatic arena. The conflict necessitates bold and sophisticated political maneuvers to counter Hamas's soft power and advance Israeli interests. Nonetheless, Israel lacks a dedicated "diplomatic IDF." For decades, complex political maneuvers have been orchestrated by the Prime Minister's Office, while the Foreign Ministry's influence has waned. When the Prime Minister is an unpopular figure internationally, Israel is diplomatically impotent.
Israel's political vulnerability is directly linked to the government's composition. Despite an expanded cabinet during the war, the country's diplomatic capital is extremely low with a government perceived as ideologically rigid.
Atchalta is a non-partisan Zionist organization, but we cannot ignore the fact that from a national security point of view, this is not the right government to navigate this crisis.
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