Hamas' declarations of victory ahead of the implementation of the ceasefire are particularly hollow. Upon the announcement of the ceasefire, Hamas militants shed their civilian clothing, donned uniforms, and roamed the streets of Khan Yunis armed, celebrating the organization's survival.
Hamas lost the war
Hamas may wave the release of prisoners and its apparent retention of power as achievements. However, the humanitarian tragedy in Gaza, the widespread destruction, and the high death toll (which Hamas likely inflated) have already sparked tough questions within Palestinian discourse about the "achievements" of October 7. Contrary to Hamas' demands, the war was not declared over, the IDF did not commit to a full withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and there are restrictions on the return of displaced persons to their homes.
Hamas sought to wage an open-ended war to exhaust Israeli society and bring about Israel's implosion. While Hamas inflicted severe wounds on the soul of Israeli society, it did not break its spirit as hoped. Despite recurring societal fractures, Israeli society is emerging from the war more united than it was before and is unlikely to return quickly to the depths of October 6, even as some politicians and public figures seem intent on steering it there.
The fact that Gazans did not rise up against Hamas is seen by many as evidence that public support for Hamas remains strong. The war did not turn Gazans into Zionists, and most would be pleased to see Israel collapse. However, time will tell if the following assessment proves accurate: support for Hamas in Gaza is at its lowest point following the war due to the suffering it caused. The organization's political challenge will only begin once the ceasefire is implemented. Gazans did not rise up against Hamas because one cannot rebel against ghosts hiding underground. Now, as Hamas tries to regain control of governing institutions and assumes public visibility—through its officials, police, offices, and soldiers—it may become the target of public anger.
It is no coincidence that recent internal Palestinian discussions have accelerated regarding the establishment of a joint expert government, effectively dismantling Hamas' rule—a development that may have been an unpublicized Israeli condition for the ceasefire. Just as Hezbollah in Lebanon experienced after its war, Hamas too may find that its public support and legitimacy were severely damaged during the conflict.
This is not an absolute victory
In the long war of attrition initiated by the Moqawama axis led by Iran, Israel currently has the upper hand. Hamas, as a military entity, has been dismantled. Israel managed to maintain the Abraham Accords during the war, and with the ceasefire, there is now an opening for normalization with Saudi Arabia and possibly even the formation of a regional coalition—a scenario that would further underscore the defeat of the axis led by Iran. However, Israel has not achieved an absolute victory, especially while so many hostages remain in captivity. Moreover, Iran continues to advance toward nuclear capability, and the Houthis remain a significant and unpredictable threat.
Perhaps now, with the battles at least temporarily subdued, Israel can dedicate time to restoring its international standing, which suffered severely during the war. There is no 'beeper operation' to rebuild Israel's international status; a comprehensive approach and renewed strategic thinking are required for the Israeli foreign policy framework. Israel's standing in the world is becoming a more critical factor than ever for the nation's security.
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